A Prediction on Greece

The powerful European Central Bank [ E C B ] i...

Image by UggBoy♥UggGirl

I’ll just make it here, for the record: no matter what happens in the Greece/EU situation- whether the ECB keep feeding them short-term, expensive money, whether the Germans suddenly decide that the Greeks are just dandy folks and give them all the money they need at the low interest rates they need, whether the Greeks decide that they shouldn’t cheat on their taxes and they should totally work really hard and cut their public sector in half and sell off government assets and pay back all the money they owe as soon as possible, whether they default without pulling out of the Euro, whether they pull out and do some sort of restructuring or soft default, whether they pull out and cut themselves off from the world- no matter which of various unlikely, utopian or too-horrible-to-comprehend scenarios take place, there are going to be tremendous opportunities for arbitrage somewhere in the system.

Yes, some of these might only be feasible on a small scale, some only on a large scale, some if you know the right people in various Greek/EU organizations, many in ways that legitimate global financial entities cannot employ, but they’ll be there.

(Inspired in part by this.)


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